NCJ Number
206182
Journal
Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology Volume: 19 Issue: 1 Dated: Spring 2004 Pages: 1-16
Date Published
2004
Length
16 pages
Annotation
This study investigated the possibility of statistically linking arson cases based on consistency of behaviors from one crime scene to another.
Abstract
Linking a series of offenses to a single offender is one of the most important tasks of a police inquiry team. In this study, serial and spree arson cases were studied to differentiate underlying themes and link cases committed by the same offender. The material consisted of 248 arson cases which formed 42 series of arsons. A content analysis using 45 dichotomous variables was carried out and principal components analysis (PCA) was performed to identify underlying themes. Summary scores reflecting the themes were calculated. Linking effectiveness was tested with a discriminate function analysis using the summary scores. Six factors were retained in the PCA. The results of the present study can be helpful to crime investigation in providing a basis for linking a number of crimes to one offender, and thereby reducing the number of potential suspects. A more efficient method of investigation might be made possible by focusing on carefully selected variables to record information from the crime scene. From a practical point of view, the results of this study could be used as a basis for developing support systems for police investigations of arson. Future studies might investigate the use of additional variables for linking offenders and offenses. Tables, references