NCJ Number
81589
Date Published
1980
Length
32 pages
Annotation
Issues bearing upon the selection of a methodology for long-range planning and forecasting are considered, and summaries of long-range planning efforts of some organizations are presented, followed by a discussion of alternative strategies for long-range planning for Minnesota's justice system.
Abstract
Before selecting and implementing an approach to long-range planning or forecasting, the purpose of the project should be identified. Further, potential users of the project must be systematically identified, their needs and interests determined, and their commitment to the project secured. In Minnesota, the potential users of long-range planning for the criminal justice system are diverse. As part of this feasibility study, the staff of several major State criminal justice agencies were interviewed about their current forecasting efforts and their future interests in this area. There was some interest in participation in a working futures group and some motivation to plan for future physical facilities. The number of people interviewed, however was limited, so that a broader, more systematic assessment of user needs is warranted. A number of alternative approaches to planning may be determined to be appropriate, based upon the needs and interests of the users. Some combination of the following approaches may be appropriate: (1) the establishment of a Minnesota Criminal Justice Futures Group; (2) the production of demographic-based projections of crime and its impact on the system; (3) the production of projections based on a causal model, which would involve building a model of factors related to the occurrence of crime, collecting data to establish the causal relationships, and projecting those relationships into the future; and (4) holding a conference on the future of Minnesota's criminal justice system. A bibliography of 29 listings is provided.