NCJ Number
121822
Journal
British Journal of Criminology Volume: 29 Issue: 4 Dated: (Autumn 1989) Pages: 317-335
Date Published
1989
Length
19 pages
Annotation
Longitudinal sequences of types of offences committed in criminal careers are examined for stationary first-order Markov chain characteristics.
Abstract
A sample of 698 English male prisoners who had each been convicted of at least two standard list offences was investigated. The probability of switching from one offence to another remained constant over successive convictions in agreement with Markov chain hypothesis. Contrary to the hypothesis, however, the past history of types of offences helped to predict future types of offences, suggesting that there was some specialization in offending. This was confirmed and quantified by the forward specialization coefficient. The most specialized offenders were sex offenders, and the most persistent offenders became increasingly specialized in fraud. When the extent to which one sentence followed another was studied, the stepping-stone nature of the sentencing tariff was revealed. 6 tables, 39 references. (Author abstract modified)