MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF POLICE PATROL WORKLOAD

• NCJ Number: 2246
• Author(s): J T MCEWEN
• Date Published: 1968
• Length: 32 pages
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: *This document is currently unavailable from NCJRS. PRESENTED AT THE TIMS/ORSA JOINT NATIONAL MEETING, SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA, MAY, 1968

Annotation

MATHEMATICAL MODEL TO PROVIDE THE MANAGEMENT OF THE ST. LOUIS POLICE DEPARTMENT WITH PREDICTIONS OF FUTURE WORKLOAD IN THEIR VARIOUS PATROL AREAS.

Abstract

THESE PREDICTIONS HAVE PROVEN TO BE ACCURATE ENOUGH TO BE EMPLOYED IN FORMULATING PATROL BEATS. IN ADDITION, QUEUEING TABLES ARE BEING PRODUCED AND USED IN PLANNING OPERATIONS. BASED ON PREDICTIONS, THESE TABLES GIVE AN INDICATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF CALLS DELAYED IF VARYING NUMBERS OF PATROL UNITS ARE AVAILABLE. THE MODEL ASSUMES THAT THE FACTORS WHICH INFLUENCE THE NUMBER OF CALLS FOR SERVICE CHANGE SLOWLY OVER A PERIOD OF TIME. THE PREDICTION PROCESS IS ACCOMPLISHED BY MAINTAINING DISTRIBUTIONS OF CALLS OVER THE HOURS OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKS OF THE YEAR, AND USING THIS INFORMATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH EXPONENTIALLY SMOOTHED AVERAGES ON GEOGRAPHIC SUBDIVISIONS OF THE CITY. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED) 7 REFERENCES