METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES FOR MEASURING SHORT TERM VICTIMIZATION TRENDS

• NCJ Number: 17784
• Author(s): A L SCHNEIDER
• Date Published: 1975
• Length: 18 pages
• Grant Number(s): 74-NI-99-0016
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice; Oregon Law Enforcement Council; US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Corporate Author: Oregon Research Institute
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Survey
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

TAX MODELS ARE PRESENTED FOR CORRECTING BIASES IN REPORTED VICTIMIZATION FOR THE CRIMES OF RAPE, ROBBERY, ASSAULT AND BURGLARY IN THIS 1974 SURVEY OF 3950 HOUSEHOLDS IN THE PORTLAND OREGON METROPOLITAN AREA.

Abstract

THOSE WHO HAVE CONDUCTED VICTIMIZATION STUDIES TEND TO AGREE THAT A SINGLE SURVEY COVERING A 12-MONTH RECALL PERIOD CANNOT BE USED TO MEASURE TRENDS DURING THAT YEAR. THIS IS DUE TO SEVERAL REASONS: 1) RESPONDENTS MAY TELESCOPE EVENTS INTO A ONE YEAR TIME PERIOD THAT ACTUALLY OCCURRED PRIOR TO THE SURVEY YEAR, 2) RESPONDENTS HAVE A TENDENCY TO TELESCOPE AN INCIDENT FORWARD WITHIN A ONE YEAR PERIOD, AND 3) RESPONDENTS MAY FORGET INCIDENTS. THE FIRST CORRECTIVE MEASURE INVOLVES COMBINING THE SURVEY DATA WITH OFFICIAL POLICE DATA TO ASCERTAIN THE PERCENTAGE OF CRIME REPORTED AND PRODUCE A 'CORRECTED' ESTIMATE OF TOTAL INCIDENTS. THE OTHER METHOD INVOLVES THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EMPIRICAL MODEL OF TELESCOPING AND FORGETTING TO REMOVE THESE BIASES FROM THE DATA. THE APPLICATION OF THESE TWO MODELS TO THE 1974 SURVEY DATA IS THEN DISCUSSED. FOR A DISCUSSION OF VICTIMIZATION TRENDS BASED ON THE SURVEY, SEE NCJ-17785.