NCJ Number
61715
Date Published
1978
Length
67 pages
Annotation
THIS STUDY WAS DESIGNED TO EXAMINE RESIDENTIAL CARE BED SPACE NEEDS IN MICHIGAN, PRINCIPALLY FOR DELINQUENT CHILDREN AND YOUTH.
Abstract
PLACEMENT INFORMATION WAS OBTAINED FROM THE CHILD CARE PLACEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM OF THE DEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL SERVICES (DSS) AND FROM COURT CASELOADS. THE RELIABILITY OF PROJECTIONS WAS A FUNCTION OF SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING AVAILABLE FIGURES AND TIME. UTILIZATION RATES FOR A TREATMENT PROGRAM ARE RELATIVELY INDEPENDENT OF THE SIZE OF TOTAL DSS AND COURT CASELOADS. CERTAIN OTHER FACTORS CAN ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT; REDUCING TRUANCY, FOR EXAMPLE. COMBINED CASELOADS FOR THE DSS AND COURTS ARE PROJECTED TO DECLINE FROM 1977 TO 1990 BY ABOUT 14 PERCENT; ALTHOUGH THE DELINQUENT CASELOAD MAY NOT DROP AS RAPIDLY AS THE YOUTH-AT-RISK CASELOAD. A REDUCED CASELOAD MAY ALSO PERMIT THE PROCESSING OF YOUTH WHO MAY HAVE BEEN PASSED OVER UNDER HEAVY CASELOAD CONDITIONS. THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE PRESSURE FOR INSTITUTIONAL PLACEMENT MAY BE THE SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN THE TRUANCY RATE FROM ALMOST 4 YOUTH IN 10 IN 1973 TO 1 YOUTH IN 10 IN 1978. VARIABLES INFLUENTIAL IN DETERMINING FUTURE INSTITUTIONAL BED NEEDS ARE INTAKE RATE, PAROLE REVOCATION RATE, AVERAGE LENGTH OF STAY, TRUANCY RATE, AND INTERACTIONS AMONG THESE VARIABLES. A HEAVY DEMAND ON INSTITUTIONS ALSO HAS A SECONDARY IMPACT ON THE NEED FOR COMMUNITY RESIDENTIAL CARE BEDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE DSS FAMILY FOSTER CARE CASELOAD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLIGHTLY, BECOME STABLE, AND THEN DECLINE. CONSIDERATION IS GIVEN TO PRIVATE (PURCHASED) INSTITUTIONAL PLACEMENT, SHORT-TERM PLACEMENT, AND THE GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF FACILITY BED NEEDS. SUPPORTING DATA AND FOOTNOTES ARE INCLUDED. (DEP)