NCJ Number
46231
Date Published
1978
Length
85 pages
Annotation
THE FEASIBILITY OF USING FELONY INVESTIGATION MODELS IN THE INVESTIGATION OF CRIMES IS THE FOCUS OF THIS STUDY.
Abstract
DECISION MODELS FOR ROBBERY AND BURGLARY, DEVELOPED BY THE STANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTE, WERE APPLIED TO CRIMINAL OFFENSE CASES IN MINNESOTA. A DECISION MODEL IS A SET OF NUMERICALLY WEIGHTED VARIABLES OR ELEMENTS OF INFORMATION THAT, IF PRESENT IN A CRIME REPORT, ALLOW THE OUTCOME OF CASES TO BE PREDICTED WITH A CONSISTENT DEGREE OF CERTAINTY. THE THREE PRIMARY PURPOSES OF THIS RESEARCH EFFORT WERE TO VALIDATE THE FINDNGS OF STANFORD'S STUDY BY EXTENDING THE RESEARCH TO MEDIUM-SIZE CITIES WITHIN MINNESOTA (POPULATIONS OF 20,000 TO 60,000) REVIEW THE PROBLEM OF ALLOCATION OF INVESTIGATION TIME BY POLICE DEPARTMENTS AND DEVELOP A DECISION MODEL FOR THE CRIME OF LARCENY. THE STUDY INVOLVED TESTING THE MODELS IN FOUR POLICE AGENCIES IN THE STATE. ALL CLEARED AND UNCLEARED CASES OF ROBBERY, USUALLY COVERING THE YEARS 1974 THROUGH 1976, WERE REVIEWED. FOR BURGLARY, ALL CLEARED CASES AND A SAMPLE OF UNCLEARED CASES, USUALLY FROM 1976, WERE REVIEWED. FOR THE MODEL TO BE SUCCESSFULLY DISCRIMINATING, A 75-PERCENT DEGREE OF ACCURACY WAS REQUIRED; THE RESULTS FROM ALL 4 AGENCIES FELL ABOVE THE 75-PERCENT LEVEL. THE TEST WAS STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT AT THE .001 LEVEL. NO DETERMINATION HAS YET BEEN MADE WHETHER A DECISION MODEL FOR LARCENY CAN BE DEVELOPED. EXTENSIVE DATA WERE COLLECTED FROM TWO POLICE AGENCIES IN MINNESOTA, AND RESEARCHERS ARE ANALYZING THESE DATA BY COMPUTER. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE DECISION MODELS FOR ROBBERY AND BURGLARY BE ADOPTED AND IMPLEMENTED BY THE POLICE DEPARTMENTS IN THE STATE OF MINNESOTA AND THAT CONTINUING EVALUATION BE COMPLETED TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY CHANGE IN CLEARANCES OCCURS AS A RESULT OF THE MODEL'S APPLICATION. IT IS ALSO RECOMMENDED THAT A UNIFORM OFFENSE REPORT BE INSTITUTED STATEWIDE AND THAT INDIVIDUAL INVESTIGATORS BE PROVIDED WITH SEPARATE COPIES OF EACH OFFENSE REPORT FOR RETENTION IN PERSONAL FILES, AND FURTHER, THAT A UNIFORM INTERPRETATION OF DEFINITIONS OF CRIMES IS NEEDED. IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE STATE LEGISLATURE TO REDEFINE SOME CRIMES TO MAKE THEM MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE NATIONAL STANDARDS AND TO PROVIDE LAW ENFORCEMENT PERSONNEL WITH BETTER DEFINITIONS. AN OVERVIEW OF THE METHODOLOGY OF THE ANALYSIS IS GIVEN, WITH ATTENTION TO TEST SITE SELECTION AND DATA COLLECTION ANALYSIS. A GLOSSARY OF TERMS IS ALSO PROVIDED. THE RESULTS OF THE ROBBERY AND BURGLARY ANALYSES ARE INCLUDED. APPENDIXES CONTAINING BACKGROUND OF THE FOUR TEST SITES AND COPIES OF THE OFFENSE REPORT FORMS USED BY EACH DEPARTMENT ARE PROVIDED. TABULAR DATA AND DEPARTMENTAL ORGANIZATIONAL CHARTS ARE REPRODUCED. (KBL)