NCJ Number
76231
Journal
Police Studies Volume: 3 Issue: 4 Dated: (Winter 1981) Pages: 66-73
Date Published
1981
Length
8 pages
Annotation
A computer model for prevention of thefts due to break-ins by optimally effective assignment of police street patrols is presented.
Abstract
According to the assumptions of the model, if a police officer is visible or has passed by shortly before, there is deterrence. Without any patrols, the maximum loss sustained for any time period is simple to determine. With introduction of patrols, loss due to theft should decrease; for each man added to the patrol, the cost of the patrol increases and the increased effectiveness of the patrol must be determined. The exact path, speed, and speed variations of each man in the patrol must be calculated to give maximum deterrence. The application of the patrol model is illustrated using four different sets of conditions. The goal in each case is to keep burglaries down to an acceptable low level without expending an inordinate amount of funds for patrol purposes. A BASIC program written especially for this purpose asseses the value of any given path. The original program is being modified to handle simultaneous multiple patrols so that the value of the simultaneous execution of these paths can be estimated. Thus, given a number of path choices, the job of the dispatcher would be to pick the best possible patrol network, using the interactive BASIC program to alter choices and improve results. A Fortran or PL/1 program is planned to pick the optimal patrol net for a given time and place based on given criteria and monetary constants. Future research will perform analysis in which the monetary constants are probability distributions. Sixty-six references are supplied.