NCJ Number
43172
Journal
British Journal of Criminology Volume: 17 Issue: 3 Dated: (JULY 1977) Pages: 251-263
Date Published
1977
Length
13 pages
Annotation
A MATHEMATICAL MODEL SHOWING DISORDER AS A FUNCTION OF TENSION AND ALIENATION IS DEVELOPED AND APPLIED TO A RIOT AT GARTREE PRISON, ENGLAND. INCIDENTS TRIGGERING THE RIOT ARE PLOTTED AND A CRITICAL POINT DETERMINED.
Abstract
TO HELP EXPLAIN THE INTERACTION OF FORCES WHICH ERUPT IN VIOLENCE, A MATHEMATICAL MODEL WAS DEVELOPED USING RECORDED INCIDENTS OF DISORDER AT GARTREE PRISON, COLLECTED RETROSPECTIVELY FOR EACH WEEK IN 1972. THIS COLLECTION OF DATA WAS NOT IDEAL, BUT WAS THE ONLY POSSIBLE METHOD FOR RECONSTRUCTING EVENTS LEADING TO THE RIOT OF NOVEMBER 26-27, 1972. MATHEMATICAL THEORY OF THE MODEL IS EXPLAINED IN DETAIL. THE RESULT OF THE ANALYSIS IS A SERIES OF WAVES AS TENSION AND ALIENATION EBBED AND FLOWED. IF A TRIGGERING EVENT HAPPENED DURING A PERIOD OF HIGH TENSION, ITS RESULTS WERE MUCH MORE EXPLOSIVE THAN IF IT HAPPENED DURING ONE OF THE QUIET PERIODS. THE MODEL SHOWED THAT NEUTRAL INTERVENTION BY INSTITUTIONAL MANAGEMENT, COLLOQUIALLY CALLED 'PLAYING IT COOL,' WAS SUCCESSFUL IN REDUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF DISORDER. IT WAS NOT UNTIL THE TENSION LEVEL BECAME SO HIGH AND THE DEMANDS OF BOTH SIDES SO IRRECONCILABLE THAT FURTHER COMMUNICATION WAS IMPOSSIBLE THAT DISORDER ERUPTED. A FURTHER BENEFIT OF THE MODEL IS THAT IT SHOWED THE OVERT TENSION PERIOD HAD PEAKED TWO WEEKS BEFORE THE RIOT ERUPTED. BY ENABLING AUTHORITIES TO MONITOR TENSION LEVELS, SUCH MODELS COULD HELP AVERT PRISON DISTURBANCES. FURTHER WORK ON REFINING THE MODEL AND APPLYING IT TO PRISON SITUATIONS IS BEING DONE.