NCJ Number
94253
Journal
American Journal of Economics and Sociology Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Dated: (October 1983) Pages: 385-392
Date Published
1983
Length
8 pages
Annotation
This study supports the results of earlier studies that state that property crimes are significantly related to underlying economic conditions and to the certainty of apprehension.
Abstract
This paper proposes a multivariable model that posits relationships between the property crime in a city and many diverse explanatory variables. The model includes economic factors such as local unemployment rates, per capita income, and others that depict the recession of 1973. The model also includes a set of apprehension variables, such as the dollar expenditures for visible policemen and the overall arrest rate. Seasonal dummy variables permit an examination of seasonal fluctuations in the crime index. There is also a dummy variable depicting plant closings, which relates to unemployment. The early 70's recession did not seem to have any significant effect on local property crimes. Economic conditions, particularly unemployment, did affect property crime. When the local economy prospers, the unemployment rate drops and real per capita income increases, thus removing the economic reasons for committing property crime. The results also indicate a significant negative relationship between the change in arrest rate and property crimes, demonstrating the deterrent effect of a high arrest rate. Seasonal factors generally indicated that when the weather is too cold or severe to travel or to open windows, there is less crime. Local plant closings also affected crime rates in the immediate period. One figure and 16 notes are included.