NCJ Number
149602
Date Published
1994
Length
77 pages
Annotation
This report documents the development of a model for assessing the demand for cocaine that was fit to 20 years of data on the current cocaine epidemic in the United States; demand is determined by a two-state Markovian model of user flows based on cocaine use data from the National Household Survey of Drug Abuse and other sources.
Abstract
The Markovian approach to modeling prevalence can be distinguished from purely statistical techniques such as multiple capture, Poisson estimation, and synthetic estimation and from such elaborate behavioral models as the system dynamics model. The Markovian model incorporates one or more States and transition parameters that determine flows between those States. It separates cocaine users into two categories, light users and heavy users, and demonstrates that the fraction of heavy cocaine users has varied greatly over time. The authors show that the effect of government programs designed to reduce heavy cocaine use will only be realized many years later and that the effectiveness of local law enforcement programs will also be delayed. The fact that various control programs focus on different aspects of cocaine use means that some strategies may be most appropriate for specific stages of the epidemic. The increased prevalence of heavy versus light cocaine users and its effect on total cocaine consumption is discussed. 21 references, 8 tables, and 42 figures