NCJ Number
72342
Journal
Psychological Bulletin Volume: 86 Issue: 3 Dated: (1979) Pages: 462-492
Date Published
1979
Length
31 pages
Annotation
This article reviews mathematical and computer models of jury decisionmaking that were developed from survey and experimental data.
Abstract
For each model, descriptions and comparisons are given with other related models, assumptions are scrutinized, their fit to normative data is evaluated, and possible revisions and extensions of the models are discussed. Models reviewed include multinomial decision schemes designed to adduce implicit decision rules used in jury decisionmaking, binomial models of jury voting that use simplifying assumptions about jury decisionmaking to assess the impact of explicit decicion rules and jury size on verdict distributions, and Bayesian models that use normative data to estimate prior probabilities of defendants' 'convictability' and juror accuracy. Further models reviewed are those that assess the relationships among jury size, decision rule, and jury accuracy; those that examine the relationship between juror and jury errors; and a computer simulation that uses simple assumptions about group persuasion and individual differences in jurors' resistance to persuasion to model results from empirical studies of jury decisionmaking. Each model is extensively illustrated with graphs, charts, tables, equations, and figures. Seven reference notes and over 40 references are provided. (Author abstract modified)