NCJ Number
85368
Editor(s)
J A Fox
Date Published
1981
Length
201 pages
Annotation
This series of essays develops and tests various mathematical models relevant for statistical analysis and prediction in various areas of criminal justice.
Abstract
The opening study develops and applies a methodology for estimating the size of the criminal population, including those offenders not arrested, using history records. This is followed by the development of a model of delinquency careers suggested by Wolfgang (1972), that of a simple absorbing Markov chain, that computes the fundamental matrix to determine the predictive utility of the model compared to that of its empirically derived equivalent. Another study presents the assumptions of the analytic techniques most frequently used to measure recidivism in correctional program evaluations -- the binomial model and the failure-rate model -ultimately leading to the mixed-exponential approach, the major focus of the study. The next essay portrays the use of the failure-rate regression model for the study of recidivism, touting its ability to reveal harbingers of postrelease failure. Starting from the general form of the geometric lag stucture, a presentation focuses on the partial adjustment specification (Nerlove, 1958), which is particularly useful in modeling decisionmaking processes, and this is applied to determining if and to what extent increased police spending has been a response to crime-rate trends. Other essays consider methodological issues in estimating the deterrent effect of sanctions, linking crime factors to urban land use models to determine the costs of crime and the economic benefits of crime control, and a criminometric model of the criminal justice system. Tabular data, mathematical equations, and references accompany each essay. For individual entries, see NCJ 85369-76.