Monte Carlo Bayesian Identification Using SNP Profiles

• NCJ Number: 224106
• Author(s): Donald I Promish M.S.
• Date Published: September 2008
• Length: 15 pages
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/NCJRS
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Report (Technical)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This report presents findings demonstrating how the Monte Carlo Bayesian (MCB) method successfully enables an investigator to analyze SNP (single nucleotide polymorphisms) profiles quickly, analyze composites of discrete SNP profiles, and analyze combinations of STR (short tandem repeat) and SNP profiles.

Abstract

Through more than 110 computations taking a total of about 1 1/4 hours, the Monte Carlo Bayesian (MCB) method was demonstrated to enable an investigator to analyze individual culprits’ dimorphic SNP (single nucleotide polymorphisms) profiles (DNA sequence variations) quickly without depending on “reference groups,” analyze composites of discrete SNP profiles, and analyze combinations of STR (short tandem repeat) and SNP profiles. In addition, the MCB methods have several operational features of value: (1) the method is case-specific; (2) the method accommodates variation in prior probabilities according to the investigator’s judgment regarding non-profile evidence; (3) the method produces probabilities, as well as likelihood rations; and (4) the method does not rely on “reference group” allele frequency data. The method can be used when the investigator lacks either knowledge of, or immediate access to, suitable frequency data. Appendix, tables, and references