Monte Carlo Study of Criterion Validity for Two-Question Zone Comparison Test with the Empirical Scoring System, Seven-Position and Three-Position Scoring Models

• NCJ Number: 236808
• Journal: Polygraph Volume: 40 Issue: 3 Dated: 2011 Pages: 146-156
• Author(s): Raymond Nelson
• Date Published: 2011
• Length: 11 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate criterion accuracy levels for PDD examinations conducted with the two-question ZCT format, also known as the You-Phase technique and the B-Zone technique.

Abstract

Results show that PDD examinations conducted with the You-Phase technique can be expected to meet or exceed 90 percent mean decision accuracy with fewer than 20 percent mean inconclusives using the ESS and seven-position Federal TDA models. There were no significant differences in unweighted decision accuracy for the ESS, seven-position, and three-position TDA models. Three-position TDA resulted in increases in inconclusive results over 20 percent. ANOVAs showed no significant differences in test sensitivity to deception for the three TDA models. There were significant differences in decreased test specificity and increased inconclusives for truthful cases with the seven-position and three-position models using traditional decision rules. These results suggest that seven-position and ESS numerical transformations are capable of extracting similarly useful diagnostic information from the PDD test data. Continued interest in the two question ZCT format is recommended, along with the ESS and seven-position TDA models. Comparison of the Monte Carlo results with field and laboratory data is recommended. (Published Abstract)