NCJ Number
203793
Journal
Homicide Studies: An Interdisciplinary International Journal Volume: 6 Issue: 2 Dated: May 2002 Pages: 128-176
Date Published
May 2002
Length
49 pages
Annotation
Using available United States data on weapons use in assaults and homicides from 1964 to 1999 and countywide assault and homicide data from 1960 to 1997, this study examined the trend in criminal lethality and impact of advances in medical technology.
Abstract
Since 1960, the United States has seen the lethality of serious criminal assaults drop dramatically. The proposed drop in lethality is hypothesized to be linked to the increase in medical advances and technology, thereby suppressing the homicide rate. However, research has not assessed this linkage. In an attempt to assess the linkage, this study conducted three analyses beginning with an overall look at changes in the lethality of criminal assault in the United States from 1960 to 1999. The second analysis assessed the potential link between these changes and changes in weaponry. The final analysis explored the link between lethality and the presence of medical resources by using countywide data on the presence of physicians, hospitals, trauma centers, and membership in regionalized trauma care systems. The results have earned considerable support for the hypothesis that advances in emergency medical care have greatly and increasingly reduced the lethality of violent assaults, with observed annual drops in lethality ranging from 2.5 percent to 4.5 percent. Against the baseline of 1960, it was estimated that without technology the United States would be experiencing 45,000 to 70,000 homicides a year instead of an actual 15,000 to 20,000. It is argued that research into the causes and deterrability of homicide would benefit from a “lethality perspective” that focuses on serious assaults. In contesting the outcome of criminal assault to the body, at some point weaponry may trump medicine. Tables, figures, and references