NCJ Number
47027
Date Published
1977
Length
50 pages
Annotation
SEVENTY-SEVEN HOSTAGE INCIDENTS OCCURRING IN 36 DIFFERENT COUNTRIES BETWEEN AUGUST 1968 AND JUNE 1975 ARE STATISTICALLY EXAMINED IN ORDER TO AID IN THE FORMULATION OF MANAGEMENT PROCEDURES AND POLICIES.
Abstract
A MAJOR FINDING OF THIS STUDY IS THAT TERRORIST KIDNAPING FOR BARGAINING OR PUBLICITY PURPOSES IS AN EFFECTIVE AND NOT NECESSARILY PERILOUS TACTIC. FOR EXAMPLE, THERE IS AN ALMOST 80-PERCENT CHANCE THAT ALL MEMBERS OF THE KIDNAPING TEAM WILL ESCAPE DEATH OR CAPTURE, NEARLY 50-PERCENT CHANCE THAT SOME OR EVEN ALL OF THE DEMANDS WILL BE MET, AND IT IS CERTAIN THAT THE KIDNAPERS WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST NATIONAL OR WORLDWIDE RECOGNITION IN THE MEDIA. STANDARD KIDNAPING TACTICS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR WHEN TERRORISTS ARE OPERATING ON SOME TERRAIN, WHILE BARRICADE AND HOSTAGE INCIDENTS ARE MORE APT TO OCCUR WHEN TERRORISTS ARE OPERATING ABROAD OR WHERE THEY LACK A LOCAL CAPABILITY FOR SUSTAINING UNDERGROUND OPERATIONS. ALTHOUGH AMERICAN DIPLOMATS AND OTHER AMERICAN REPRESENTATIVES HAVE BEEN TARGETS OF KIDNAPING IN ABOUT ONE-THIRD OF THE INCIDENTS STUDIED, KIDNAPERS HAVE EXPLICITLY TARGETED THE U.S. GOVERNMENT IN ONLY THREE OF THE INCIDENTS. IN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CASES, DEMANDS HAVE BEEN DIRECTED AT THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT, AND THE RELEASE OF PRISONERS WAS THE PRINCIPLE DEMAND IN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CASES. FIRM NO-CONCESSION POLICIES CLEARLY HAVE NOT SERVED AS DETERRENTS TO FUTURE KIDNAPING TACTICS, ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RESULT IN MORE KIDNAPINGS WHERE PUBLICITY IS THE MAIN OBJECTIVE. EFFECTIVE ANTITERRORIST CAMPAIGNS WHICH DESTROY OR CAPTURE TERRORIST GROUPS APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DETERRENT, REGARDLESS OF RANSOM POLICY. GOVERNMENT DECISIONS TO RESPOND TO TERRORISTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH AFFECTED BY THE RANK OR NUMBER OF HOSTAGES HELD. FINALLY, MORE HOSTAGES HAVE DIED DURING AN ASSAULT BY SECURITY FORCES THAN BY TERRORIST EXECUTION. THESE FINDINGS ARE BASED ON INCIDENTS WHICH DO NOT INCLUDE KIDNAPING OF LOCAL OFFICIALS BY LOCAL TERRORISTS, AIRLINE HIJACKINGS, OR THE NUMEROUS KIDNAPINGS OF BUSINESS EXECUTIVES. DUE TO THE SMALL SAMPLE SIZE AND THE HISTORICAL NATURE OF THESE FINDINGS, GENERALIZATIONS ABOUT FUTURE KIDNAPINGS ARE NOT ENCOURAGED. HOWEVER, THE FINDINGS DO GIVE AN IDEA OF TRENDS IN TERRORIST KIDNAPING WHICH MAY INFLUENCE SUBSEQUENT TERRORIST DECISIONS. A CHRONOLOGICAL LISTING IS PROVIDED OF 90 INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST KIDNAPING INCIDENTS, INCLUDING BRIEF SUMMARIES AND OUTCOMES, FROM AUGUST 1968 THROUGH DECEMBER 1975. (JAP)