OPTIMISM AND ACCURACY IN THE PERCEPTION OF SELECTED PAROLE PREDICTION ITEMS

• NCJ Number: 49872
• Journal: Social Forces Volume: 46 Issue: 3 Dated: (MARCH 1968) Pages: 388-400
• Author(s): J W ROGERS; N S HAYNER
• Date Published: 1968
• Length: 13 pages
• Corporate Author: University of North Carolina Press
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: REVISION OF PAPER PRESENTED AT THE ANNUAL MEETING OF THE PACIFIC SOCIOLOGICAL SOCIETY, SALT LAKE CITY (UT), APRIL 1965

Annotation

THE CONGRUENCE BETWEEN CORRECTIONS PROFESSIONALS' PERCEPTIONS OF PAROLE SUCCESS FACTORS AND RESEARCH EVIDENCE LINKING CERTAIN PREDICTION ITEMS TO PAROLE OUTCOME IS TESTED.

Abstract

RESPONDENTS FROM 10 PROFESSIONAL GROUPS (PRISON CUSTODY AND TREATMENT STAFF, OTHER PRISON STAFF, PAROLE BOARD MEMBERS, PROBATION AND PAROLE STAFF, PROSECUTING ATTORNEYS, LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS, POLICE CHIEFS, SUPERIOR COURT JUDGES, AND CITIZENS' COUNCIL MEMBERS) WERE ASKED TO ASSESS THE RELEVANCE OF 20 ITEMS FOR PREDICTING A MALE OFFENDER'S SUCCESS ON PAROLE. RESPONSES FROM 415 INDIVIDUALS WERE COMBINED INTO INDICATORS OF OPTIMISM AND ACCURACY. ACCURATE (I.E., EMPIRICALLY SUPPORTED) ASSESSMENT OF PAROLE PREDICTION ITEMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH GREATER EDUCATIONAL LEVEL, AGE, INCOME, AND INTERPROFESSIONAL CONTACT; WITH ORIENTATIONS OF NONPUNITIVENESS, CORRECTIONAL PROGRESSIVISM, AND PERMISSIVENESS; AND WITH GREATER DISTANCE (IN TERMS OF THE CORRECTIONAL SEQUENCE) BETWEEN THE PROFESSIONAL POSITION AND THE CRIMINAL OFFENSE. POSITION TENURE IS NEGATIVELY RELATED TO ACCURACY; VARIABLES OF INMATE CONTACT AND LIKING, OCCUPATIONAL SATISFACTION, AND INTERPROFESSIONAL LIKING ARE STATISTICALLY INDEPENDENT OF ACCURACY. OPTIMISM REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD OF PAROLE SUCCESS APPEARS TO RELATE POSITIVELY TO AGE, JOB SATISFACTION, INMATE LIKING, PERMISSIVENESS, PROGRESSIVISM, AND DISTANCE FROM THE OFFENSE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INTERPROFESSIONAL LIKING, WHICH BEARS A NEGATIVE ASSOCIATION TO OPTIMISM, THE REMAINING INDICATORS ARE NOT RELATED TO OPTIMISM. OPTIMISM AND ACCURACY ARE STATISTICALLY UNRELATED. OPTIMISM IS HIGHEST AMONG CITIZENS' COUNCIL MEMBERS, CORRECTIONAL STAFF OTHER THAN TREATMENT AND CUSTODIAL, AND PAROLE BOARD MEMBERS. OPTIMISM IS LOWEST AMONG PROSECUTING ATTORNEYS, LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS, AND PAROLE STAFF. ACCURACY IS HIGHEST FOR JUDGES, PAROLE BOARD MEMBERS, AND PROSECUTING ATTORNEYS, AND LOWEST FOR POLICE CHIEFS, LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS, AND PRISON CUSTODIAL STAFF. DETAILS OF THE ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING DATA ARE INCLUDED. (LKM)