NCJ Number
12244
Journal
PROBATION AND PAROLE Issue: 5 Dated: (SUMMER 1973) Pages: 42-50
Date Published
1973
Length
9 pages
Annotation
LIMITATIONS OF RELEASE CRITERIA AND FACTORS AFFECTING THE ACCURACY OF PAROLE PREDICTION, INCLUDING SUGGESTED ALTERNATIVE UTILIZATIONS OF PREDICTION DEVICES.
Abstract
PAROLE PREDICTION EMERGED AS AN ATTEMPT TO INJECT SOME DEGREE OF PRECISION INTO THE ARBITRARY SELECTION OF PROSPECTIVE PAROLEES. ESSENTIALLY, PAROLE PREDICTION REFERS TO THE ESTIMATE OF PROBABILITY OF VIOLATION OR NON-VIOLATION OF PAROLE ON THE BASIS OF POST-INSTITUTIONAL EXPERIENCE TABLES, DEVELOPED WITH REGARD TO GROUPS OF OFFENDERS POSSESSING SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS. IN ADDITION TO DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO COMMUNITIES AND SUPERVISION, A VARIETY OF OTHER FACTORS CAN THWART THE PREDICTIVE ACCURACY OF EXPERIENCE TABLES. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR INTERPERSONAL AND ATTITUDINAL FACTORS TO BE IGNORED, FOR DATA TO BE DRAWN FROM INADEQUATE OR INACCURATE REPORTS, OR FOR VARIABLES TO BE SUBJECTIVELY DETERMINED. THESE GENERAL DEFICIENCIES HAVE GENERATED DUBIOUS SETS OF PREDICTIVE CLASSIFICATIONS WHICH DO NOT PREDICT INDIVIDUAL RESPONSES, BUT RELATIVE SUCCESS FOR GROUPS. IN SUM, THE NECESSITY OF AN EXPANDED PERSPECTIVE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY APPARENT. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)