NCJ Number
199010
Journal
Homeland First Response Dated: January-March 2003 Pages: 28-29
Date Published
January 2003
Length
2 pages
Annotation
This article details the steps involved in the various functions of predictive intelligence, which aims to identify early-warning indicators of a terrorist attack that can lead to prevention and preparedness.
Abstract
Domestic predictive intelligence is built on four functions: vulnerability analysis, threat modeling, indications and warnings, and situation awareness. Predictive intelligence is based in the belief that a terrorist attack does not occur in a single moment in time, but rather is the culmination of a series of observable activities. It is the task of predictive intelligence to detect and analyze these preparatory terrorist activities, with a view toward preventing their culmination in an attack and/or developing a strategic response plan. The vulnerability analysis process determines the relative risk to identified target sites based on the effectiveness of its protection system and the potential consequences of an attack. This involves identifying potential critical infrastructure targets and target systems, conducting a detailed vulnerability analysis, identifying key vulnerabilities for each site, and producing consequence models. The threat modeling process aims to define a jurisdiction's most likely and most dangerous terrorism threat elements. This function involves developing threat models and integrating threat models with vulnerability analysis. The "indications and warning" function should define the essential elements of information required to connect the dots and identify a developing attack. The fourth function of predictive intelligence, "situation awareness," assesses the current and developing situation based on the "indications and warning" function.