NCJ Number
109629
Journal
New Zealand Journal of Psychology Volume: 16 Issue: 1 Dated: (June 1987) Pages: 3-8
Date Published
1987
Length
6 pages
Annotation
A survey of 130 residents of Christchurch, New Zealand, required respondents to estimate the number of crimes in the categories of murder, assault, burglary, and 'crimes of all kinds' reported to the police in 1984 and over the previous 20 years.
Abstract
The public's estimation of crime is important, since underestimation would suggest public complacency or ignorance toward a growing problem, and overestimation would suggest public hysteria. The 130 respondents interviewed between September and November 1985 were representative of the adult Christchurch population. Generally, respondents underestimated the number of crimes committed in 1984 but overestimated the number of murders. Judgements of the rate of increase in crime were generally more accurate than the estimates of the 1984 crime rates. The exponential rate of growth displayed by the actual figures was apparent in the respondents' estimates. There was moderate correlation between the exponents for the different crimes, indicating the respondents perceived all crimes as increasing at a similar rate. The accuracy of the estimated rates of increase was unexpected, since the rate of exponential growth is usually underestimated both in the laboratory and by respondents estimating past prices over similar periods. 2 tables, 1 figure, and 17 references.