NCJ Number
59067
Date Published
1979
Length
240 pages
Annotation
THIS BOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE IN COURSES IN METHODOLOGY THAT EMPHASIZE CONTROVERSIAL ASPECTS OF METHODOLOGY, NEWER POLICY ANAYLSIS, AND PROBLEMS OF INFERENCE AND PREDICTION.
Abstract
THE CONTROVERSIAL PROBLEMS FOCUSED ON INCLUDE SUCH ISSUES AS THE POSSIBILITY OF UNREPRESENTATIVE CHANCE SAMPLING AND ITS EFFECT ON THE CONFIRMATION OR REFUTATION OF A HYPOTHESIS; THE PREDICTABILITY OF A PERSON, PLACE, OR THING ON A VARIABLE AND THE CRITERION TO USE IN DECIDING THE BEST WAY TO PREDICT; AND THE PRESENCE OF SPURIOUS, JOINT, RECIPROCAL, AND OTHER FORMS OF CAUSATION THAT MIGHT AFFECT RESULTS. THIS BOOK IMPLICITLY RECOGNIZES A HIERARCHY OF SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH METHODS AND EACH LEVEL IN THE HIERARCHY PRESUPPOSES AN AWARENESS OF MORE ELEMENTARY LEVELS WHILE LEADING TO MORE SOPHISTICATED LEVELS. PART ONE ON BASIC SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH PRESENTS AN INVENTORY MODELING AND DECISION THEORY APPROACH TO DETERMINING AN OPTIMUM LEVEL OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE, DISCUSSES ALTERNATIVE METHODS AND CRITERIA FOR PREDICTING RANDOMLY, PREDICTING FROM KNOWING HOW THE DATA HAS BEEN DISTRIBUTED ON THE VARIABLE BEING PREDICTED, AND PREDICTING FROM KNOWING SOMETHING ABOUT THE RELATION BETWEEN THE VARIABLE BEING PREDICTED AND ANOTHER VARIABLE; AND INTRODUCES MEASURES FOR DETERMINING AND REJECTING CAUSATION. THE SECTION ON POLICY ANALYSIS METHODS DISCUSSES COMBINING AND RELATING GOALS AND PROCESSING THE COMBINATIONS AND RELATIONS; FINDING AN OPTIMUM CHOICE, LEVEL, OR MIX IN PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS; DEDUCTIVE MODELING IN POLICY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING BOTH CAUSAL AND PRESCRIPTIVE MODELING; AND APPLYING POLICY ANALYSIS AND SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH TO DELAY REDUCTIONS. THIS LAST CHAPTER TAKES UP QUEUEING THEORY, OPTIMUM SEQUENCING, CRITICAL PATH METHOD AND FLOW CHART MODELS, OPTIMUM LEVEL AND MIX ANALYSIS, OPTIMUM CHOICE ANALYSIS, AND MARKOV CHAIN ANALYSIS. CHAPTERS CLOSE WITH CONCLUSIONS, REFERENCES, AND APPENDIXES WHICH PRESENT THE MODELS AND FORMULAS REFERRED TO IN THE TEXT. OVERVIEW APPENDIXES SUMMARIZE THE MAIN FORMULAS IN STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND DISCUSS PROBLEMS RELATING TO MISSING DATA. AN INDEX IS PROVIDED.