NCJ Number
62350
Journal
INTERFACES Volume: 8 Issue: 2 Dated: (FEBRUARY 1978) Pages: 46-53
Date Published
1978
Length
8 pages
Annotation
THE MAGNITUDE AND PROJECTED OUTCOMES OF POLITICAL KIDNAPPING ARE STUDIED, ESPECIALLY THE TREND TOWARD BUSINESS KIDNAPPING, THE INTERNATIONAL NATURE OF URBAN GUERRILLA ORGANIZATIONS, AND FUTURE DANGERS.
Abstract
THIS STUDY IS BASED ON AN EXPANDED DATA BANK OF POLITICAL KIDNAPPING THAT HAVE OCCURRED FROM JANUARY 1968 TO JUNE 1974. A DECISION-TREE FRAMEWORK IS PRESENTED WHICH SUMMARIZES THE PROBABILITIES INVOLVED AND THE EXPECTED PAYOFFS FOR 54 CASES. THE OUTCOMES OF THESE ABDUCTIONS SHOW THAT, IF THE ABDUCTION WAS UNSUCCESSFUL OR IF RANSOM WAS NOT PAID, THE PROBABILITY THAT THE KIDNAP VICTIM WOULD BE KILLED WAS 67 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF BEING KILLED WAS ZERO FOR THE 39 CASES IN WHICH RANSOM WAS BOTH DEMANDED AND PAID. TERRORIST OPERATIONS, SUCH AS THOSE CONDUCTED BY THE TUPAMAROS OF URUGUAY AND THE PEOPLE'S REVOLUTIONARY ARMY (ERP) IN ARGENTINA AGAINST MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS HAVE RESULTED IN RANSOM PAYMENTS RANGING FROM $500,000 TO SEVERAL MILLION DOLLARS AND IN SOME CASES, THE EVACUATION OF AMERICAN EXECUTIVES. TRANSNATIONAL AFFILIATIONS AMONG TERRORIST GROUPS, ENABLING GUERRILLAS TO RECEIVE ADVANCED TRAINING IN TERRORIST TACTICS, AND ACCESS TO COMPLEX NEW TECHNOLOGY HAVE HEIGHTENED SOCIETY'S VULNERABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTION AND DISRUPTIONS. TO DATE, AMERICA'S NO-RANSOM POLICY HAS FAILED TO STOP THE TREND TOWARD POLITICAL KIDNAPPING. ALTHOUGH THE NUMBER OF DIPLOMATIC KIDNAPPINGS HAVE DECREASED, THE KIDNAPPINGS, OF BUSINESS EXECUTIVES HAVE RISEN, WITH A GREATER SUCCESS RATE FOR THE KIDNAPPERS (65 PERCENT) AFTER THE OFFICIAL NO-RANSOM POLICY WENT INTO EFFECT. NEGOTIATIONS MAY PROVE MORE FRUITFUL THAN QUICK FACE-SAVING SCHEMES IN VIEW OF THE BURDEN PLACED ON THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY. REFERENCES AND TABULAR DATA ARE PRESENTED. (WJR)