NCJ Number
49303
Date Published
1954
Length
180 pages
Annotation
POSTPROBATION BEHAVIOR OF 500 FEDERAL OFFENDERS WAS FOLLOWED FOR PERIODS OF 5 TO 10 YEARS. THE VALIDITY OF A PIONEERING PAROLE-PREDICTION DEVICE WAS ASSESSED AND FACTORS LEADING TO PROBATION SUCCESS WERE EXAMINED.
Abstract
THE 500 MEN WERE ALL PROBATIONED IN THE EASTERN DISTRICT OF PENNSYLVANIA, 1939-1944. MOST HAD BEEN SENTENCED BETWEEN 1937 AND 1941. THE FOLLOWUP WAS CONDUCTED IN 1950. IN GENERAL, AGES, EDUCATIONAL LEVELS, AND EMPLOYMENT SKILLS WERE COMPARABLE TO THOSE OF THE ADULT MALE POPULATION OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS A WHOLE. THE LONG-TERM STUDY WAS DESIGNED TO TEST PREDICTIONS OF PAROLE SUCCESS MADE BY EXPERIENCED PAROLE OFFICERS, TO TEST THE VALIDITY OF AN EXPERIMENTAL PAROLE-PREDICTION INSTRUMENT DEVELOPED FOR THE STUDY, AND TO ASSESS FACTORS LEADING TO PROBATION SUCCESS OR FAILURE. OF THE SAMPLE GROUP, 17.7 PERCENT HAD EXPERIENCED FURTHER CONVICTIONS, MOST MINOR AND MORE THAN HALF INVOLVING LIQUOR VIOLATIONS, GAMBLING, THEFT, AND DISORDERLY CONDUCT. THESE RECIDIVISTS WERE YOUNGER, WERE MORE LIKELY TO COME FROM LOWER-INCOME FAMILIES, AND WERE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE HAD PREVIOUS ENCOUNTERS WITH THE LAW. THIS COINCIDED WITH THE JUDGMENTS OF THE PROBATION OFFICERS. THE FOLLOWING RESULTS WERE FINDINGS OF THE OVER-ALL STUDY: (1) THE JUDGMENTS OF EXPERIENCED PROBATION PERSONNEL WERE GOOD PREDICTORS OF PAROLE SUCCESS; (2) THE PREDICTION DEVICE CONSTRUCTED AS PART OF THE STUDY SHOWED SOME VALIDITY; AND (3) PROBATIONERS RECEIVING ONLY ROUTINE SERVICES AND CONTACTS HAD RECIDIVISM RATES SIMILAR TO THOSE RECEIVING INTENSIVE SERVICES. BECAUSE THE PROBATION STAFF HAD INSUFFICIENT MANPOWER TO GIVE EACH OFFENDER THE TIME RECOMMENDED BY PROBATION EXPERTS, SERVICES WERE CONCENTRATED ON MEN WHOSE AGE, CRIMINAL BACKGROUND, AND SOCIOECONOMIC CIRCUMSTANCES LED THE STAFF TO BELIEVE THE CHANCE RECIDIVISM MIGHT BE GREATER -- ABOUT 25 PERCENT OF THE SAMPLE. HOWEVER, THE 87 PROBATIONERS WHO EVENTUALLY WERE RETURNED TO PRISON HAD A MEAN NUMBER OF CONTACTS OF .357 PER MONTH, COMPARED TO .376 FOR THE TOTAL GROUP, AND .379 FOR THOSE WHO DID NOT RECIDIVATE. THERE IS NO STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE IN THESE DEVIATIONS. IT WAS ALSO FOUND THAT TERMS OF PROBATION HAD LITTLE RELATIONSHIP TO THE REHABILITATIVE NEEDS OF THE OFFENDER BUT WERE BASED ON THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE OFFENSE. SURVEY FINDINGS ARE PRESENTED IN DETAIL WITH TABLES, CASE HISTORIES, INTERVIEWS WITH PROBATION OFFICERS, A DESCRIPTION OF SURVEY METHODOLOGY AND A COPY OF THE INSTRUMENT WHICH WAS DEVELOPED. A BIBLIOGRAPHY IS APPENDED. (GLR)