NCJ Number
227451
Date Published
2009
Length
43 pages
Annotation
This chapter considers the possibilities of computer-assisted computational methods, particularly computer simulation, in the evaluation of crime-reduction activities.
Abstract
The first section of the chapter provides an example of a technique used to evaluate the effect and sustainability of a situational crime prevention measure implemented at the individual household level. The method used differs from traditional approaches in that a "Monte Carlo simulation resampling" procedure is used to estimate what would have been expected in the absence of intervention and to estimate the statistical significance of observed effects. The chapter's second section discusses the evaluation of area-level, rather than individual-level, interventions, with a focus on how this type of simulation can be used to model data-generating processes not explicitly considered in traditional types of analysis. This section discusses some of the relevant issues rather than the presentation of the results of an actual evaluation. In the third section, issues regarding the implementation of interventions are considered. Evaluations of place-based crime-reduction initiatives generally indicate that implementation is gradual rather than abrupt. In successful interventions, there is a link between the timing and intensity of implementation and the volume of crime prevented; using an extension of the methodology discussed in section two, examples are provided of how computer simulations might be used to estimate the possible effects of various implementation plans prior to the inception of crime-reduction activity. The chapter's final section discusses the potential use of computer simulation to test theoretical models of crime-reduction strategies before they are piloted in an operational context. A simple example is provided to illustrate some of the concepts. 6 figures, 2 tables, 10 notes, and 70 references