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PREDICTING ADULT CRIMINAL CAREERS FROM JUVENILE CAREERS

NCJ Number
54107
Author(s)
L W SHANNON
Date Published
Unknown
Length
210 pages
Annotation
THE NATURE OF URBAN JUVENILE DELINQUENT CAREERS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO LATER ADULT CAREERS ARE EXPLORED THROUGH ANALYSIS OF DATA OBTAINED FROM THE FILES OF THE JUVENILE BUREAU AND RACINE POLICE RECORDS DIVISION.
Abstract
THE FINDINGS IN THIS REPORT WERE GENERATED FROM TWO SETS OF DATA. THE FIRST CONSISTS OF RECORDED CONTACTS WITH THE POLICE BY TWO COHORTS, ONE BORN IN 1942, THE OTHER IN 1949. BIRTH COHORTS WERE SELECTED FROM THE FILES OF THE RACINE UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT; THE 1942 COHORT CONSISTED OF 1,352 PERSONS, THE 1949 OF 2,099 PERSONS. FOR BOTH GROUPS, THE REASONS FOR POLICE CONTACT, SERIOUSNESS OF OFFENSE, PLACE OF RESIDENCE, AND OTHER DATA WERE UTILIZED IN PREDICTING WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO ENGAGE IN DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR, WHO WILL CEASE DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR, AND WHO WILL EXHIBIT ADULT CRIMINAL ACTIVITY. THE SECOND SET OF DATA CONSISTS OF RESPONSES TO QUESTIONS ASKED IN LENGTHY INTERVIEWS WITH SAMPLES OF THE COHORTS. THESE INTERVIEWS FOCUSED UPON THE PROCESS BY WHICH JUVENILES CAME TO ENGAGE IN DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR, AND THE REASONS WHY THEY NOW, AS ADULTS, EITHER DID OR DID NOT HAVE CONTACT WITH THE POLICE. ANALYSIS OF THE DATA SHOWED THAT NEITHER OCCUPATIONAL LEVEL OF PARENTS NOR REGULARITY OF EMPLOYMENT CORRELATED WITH DELINQUENCY AND CRIME AND RESULTING POLICE CONTACT, EXCEPT FOR NEGRO MALES. SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS, HOWEVER, IS RELATED TO DELINQUENCY, PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE OFFENSE. ANALYSIS SHOULD, THEREFORE, BE BASED ON AREAS RATHER THAN ON STRATA GENERATED BY INCOME, OCCUPATION, OR EDUCATION. SURPRISINGLY, LITTLE DIRECT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SUMMER, SCHOOL YEAR, OR EARLY FULL-TIME EMPLOYMENT AND THE ABSENCE OF POLICE CONTACTS OR LOWER-TYPE SERIOUSNESS SCORES WAS DEMONSTRATED. IN ADDITION, THERE WAS SOME RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DELINQUENT AND CRIMINAL CAREERS AND FAMILY TYPE, (I.E., UNIFIED OR BROKEN HOME). SIMILARLY, THERE WAS LITTLE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RESPONDENTS' PERCEPTION OF THE PARENTS' DELINQUENT AND CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR AND THEIR OWN BEHAVIOR. FINALLY, IT WAS DETERMINED THAT ALTHOUGH POLICE CONTACTS GENERALLY DECLINE WITH AGE, THEY DECLINE MARKEDLY AFTER MARRIAGE. THUS, IT IS THE MARITAL STATUS OF THE RESPONDENT RATHER THAN THAT OF PARENTS THAT SHOULD BE ADDED TO THE PREDICTION DEVICE AS AN IMPORTANT VARIABLE. TABULAR STATISTICAL DATA AND A FEW FOOTNOTES ARE PROVIDED. (LWM)