PREDICTING ARRESTEE RESIDENCE RATES

• NCJ Number: 10908
• Author(s): M K HOWARD
• Date Published: 1973
• Length: 66 pages
• Grant Number(s): 72-NI-09-0001; NI-70-023
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice; US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Corporate Author: American Justice Institute
• Sale Source: National Technical Information Service
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: SANTA CLARA CRIMINAL JUSTICE PILOT PROGRAM

Annotation

PREDICTING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE CENSUS TRACTS OF SANTA CLARA COUNTY, CALIFORNIA IN TERMS OF ADULT RESIDENTS ARRESTED FROM MARCH 1 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 1972.

Abstract

TWO DIFFERENT APPROACHES WERE TAKEN - (1) PREDICTION FROM CENSUS TRACT GROUPS BASED ON PATTERNS OF SOCIAL DIMENSION SCORES, AND (2) MULTIPLE LINEAR PREDICTION FROM 37 DEMOGRAPHIC MEASURES. THREE THINGS REMAIN THE SAME FOR EITHER APPROACH - THE OBJECTS OF STUDY (CENSUS TRACTS), THE MEASURED PROPERTIES OF THE TRACTS (37 DEMOGRAPHIC MEASURES), AND THE MEASURE BEING PREDICTED (ARRESTEE RATES). THE CENSUS TRACTS ARE THOSE LAID OUT FOR THE 1970 CENSUS AND CONTAIN FROM 152 TO 17,599 PEOPLE. THE PATTERN OF SCORES ON THE 37 DEMOGRAPHIC MEASURES DESCRIBES THE SOCIAL SITUATION IN WHICH ANY INDIVIDUAL IS EMBEDDED. THE AUTHORS CONCLUDE THAT THE ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIAL STRUCTURE OF THE COUNTY HAS POINTED TO THE FACT THAT TRACTS WHICH DO NOT SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF SOCIOECONOMIC DEPRIVATION HAVE PREDICTABLY LOW ARRESTEE RESIDENCE RATES. TRACTS WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF SOCIOECONOMIC DEPRIVATION VARY CONSIDERABLY IN TERMS OF ARRESTEE RATES. APPENDED MATERIAL INCLUDES A LISTING OF NUMERATOR AND DENOMINATOR TERMS USED TO DERIVE DEMOGRAPHIC MEASURES.