Predicting Crime Potential at Any Point on the City Map (From Metropolitan Crime Patterns, P 127-136, 1986, Robert M Figlio, et al, eds. - See NCJ-102783)

• NCJ Number: 102790
• Author(s): M Felson
• Date Published: 1986
• Length: 10 pages
• Sale Source: Criminal Justice Press/Willow Tree Press
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

The population potential concept is useful both for defining the risk of crime at any point on a city map and for predicting that risk, based on the characteristics of the surrounding population.

Abstract

The concept focuses on individual points rather than on areas. The population potential for a specific point considers the people surrounding a particular point in terms of both their numbers and their proximity. The crime risk is the product of both the numbers and the proximity of crime incidents. These concepts were applied using 1970 police and census data for 703 census tracts in Los Angeles. Predictive equations were developed and tested using 20 points taken at random in the study area. Safe points were those farthest from all human populations, regardless of race. Within the more populated areas, points surrounded by intact husband-wife couples were less risky than other points. It is possible to make effective risk predictions for all points on the map, subject to specific assumptions. Details of the prediction model, data tables, and 4 reference notes. (Author abstract modified)