NCJ Number
234233
Journal
Journal of Experimental Criminology Volume: 7 Issue: 1 Dated: March 2011 Pages: 57-71
Date Published
March 2011
Length
15 pages
Annotation
This article discusses instruments for the prediction of criminal recidivism.
Abstract
Criminal justice researchers often develop prediction instruments as a practitioner tool for improving the allocation of resources in community corrections administration. Although best practices have emerged for developing predictions, those best practices lead to predictions that fail to distinguish risk factors from control and correctional responses to risk. The consequence is that predictions fail to predict what they purport to predict, and this limits the utility of those predictions for public policy. This note argues that when properly done, predictions pertain to a latent, unobservable population. Given that perspective, some best practices advocated for prediction should be abandoned, and new best practices should be adopted. (Published Abstract)