Predicting Delinquency in Adolescence and Young Adulthood: A Longitudinal Analysis of Early Risk Factors

• NCJ Number: 224484
• Journal: Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice Volume: 6 Issue: 4 Dated: October 2008 Pages: 323-342
• Author(s): Amy E. Green; Ellis L. Gesten; Mark A. Greenwald; Octavio Salcedo
• Date Published: October 2008
• Length: 20 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This study examined the ability of early risk factors to predict delinquency referrals.

Abstract

Findings from this study provide evidence for the ability of early composite or cumulative risk to predict high-school and delinquency outcomes 5 to 17 years later. High-risk youth had a mean number of delinquency referrals nearly eight times greater than low-risk youth and a mean number of referrals nearly three times greater than mid-risk youth. Regarding demographic risk factors, the study found that being male, Black, or poor was related to increased number of delinquency referrals, with socioeconomic status being the strongest of the predictor control variables. Regarding birth-related risk factors, those youths whose mothers reported higher levels of cigarette smoking during pregnancy had higher levels of delinquency referrals. Regarding family factors, low educational achievement of the mother significantly predicted delinquency referrals for female and Black students only. Having an unmarried mother or unmarried parents between birth and fifth grade was a significant risk factor in the overall risk regression model and a significant predictor for males and White students. Externalizing behavior in the fifth grade was also a significant predictor of delinquency referrals. The findings have important implications for delinquency prevention efforts. Study participants were students enrolled in the Pinellas County Schools Omnibus Project (Florida). As part of this project, schools collected longitudinal data for 8,734 students who began school in the 1989-90 batch of kindergarten classes. Students who remained in the district were followed through their 13 years of schooling, with data collected each year from combinations of student surveys, parent surveys, and teacher surveys. Race, gender, and socioeconomic status were control variables. Risk factors measured were birth weight, health at birth, prenatal tobacco use, mother’s education level, reading achievement, marital status, and externalizing behavior. 7 tables and 51 references