NCJ Number
180433
Date Published
October 1998
Length
28 pages
Annotation
Data from the Rochester, N.Y., Youth Development Study that began in 1988 formed the basis of an analysis of risk factors and their ability to predict both the onset and cessation of juvenile delinquency.
Abstract
This multi-wave panel study examined the development of drug use and delinquent behavior among adolescents and young adults first interviewed when they were in seventh and eighth grades. Information came from interviews of youths and their main adult caregivers as well as from school, police, court, and social service agency records. The present research used a general offending index and a violent offending index to measure juvenile delinquency. The study grouped the early risk factors into five domains: area characteristics, parent-child relations, school factors, peer relationships, and individual characteristics. Three-quarters of the participants reported some involvement in delinquency prior to the ninth wave of the study. A total of 32.1 percent desisted prior to the early adult years; 67.9 percent persisted in their involvement in delinquency. Most of the risk factors for involvement in general delinquency or in violence were not significantly related to remaining involved in violence during the early adult years. The three factors that predicted the persistence of both general delinquency and violence were child abuse; access to drugs; and parental reports of externalizing behavior such as hostility, aggression, and noncompliance with rules. Further research is needed before the juvenile justice system uses these or other risk factors to differentiate among children. However, findings suggest that at best, few of the risk factors that predict involvement in delinquent behavior also predict desistance in early adulthood. Tables and 25 references