NCJ Number
145273
Date Published
1993
Length
154 pages
Annotation
This major report from Canada's Parole Decision-Making and Release Risk Assessment Project provides an overview of those project components that explored the prediction of release risk.
Abstract
After brief descriptions of the most important products of the project, this report considers selected key characteristics of the types of offenders for whom risk predictions are required. The various types and degrees of risk associated with each offender class are then discussed. Two chapters focus on the prediction of general recidivism for non-Aboriginal inmates. They include a report on the testing of the Nuffield Risk Prediction System. The author argues that assessments of alternative risk prediction systems should emphasize the practical usefulness of the systems when used under likely policy and operational conditions. Another chapter reports on the development and testing of alternative risk prediction systems based on Burgess scoring techniques, linear regression models, and logistic regression models. Finally, the report compares previous parole decisions with decisions that would have been made if they were based solely on risk-prediction scores. The authors identify promising directions for further investigation. 11 references