Predicting the Incidence of Organized Crime - A Preliminary Model (From Organized Crime in America, P 103-114, 1987, Timothy S Bynum, ed. - See NCJ-104665)

• NCJ Number: 104672
• Author(s): J S Albanese
• Date Published: 1987
• Length: 11 pages
• Sale Source: Criminal Justice Press/Willow Tree Press
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences, Las Vegas, Nevada, 1985.

Annotation

A predictive model is presented that describes the business conditions that render a business vulnerable to infiltration by organized crime, based on the experiences of similar businesses in the past.

Abstract

The model deals with businesses in general, on the assumption that different types of businesses may well have different probabilities of organized crime infiltration depending on the nature of the business. The model uses the results of recent theoretical and empirical investigations, particularly Smith's theory of enterprise and Albini's view of relationships between patrons and clients. The six predictors are supply, customers, regulators, competitors, patronage, and prior record. Indicators of high risk for organized crime infiltration are the preponderance of small, financially weak businesses; inelastic demand for the product; easy entry into the market; an open market with many small firms; nonprofessional managers; and a prior history of organized crime infiltration in the industry. The model may provide a useful approach to the investigation of organized crime. Although it may not make highly accurate predictions, it can be useful in distinguishing between high-risk situations and low-risk situations. Further empirical research should focus on businesses in which organized crime is already viewed as having a role. 1 note and 34 references.