PREDICTING INSTITUTIONAL AND POSTRELEASE ADJUSTMENT OF DELINQUENT BOYS

• NCJ Number: 52520
• Journal: JOURNAL OF CONSULTING PSYCHOLOGY Volume: 31 Issue: 4 Dated: (1967) Pages: 377-381
• Author(s): J E COWDEN; A R PACHT
• Date Published: 1967
• Length: 5 pages
• Corporate Author: American Psychological Assoc
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

FINDINGS ARE REPORTED FROM A WISCONSIN STUDY DESIGNED TO SELECT THOSE VARIABLES WHICH BEST PREDICT INSTITUTIONAL AND POSTRELEASE ADJUSTMENT OF DELINQUENT BOYS IN ORDER TO AID INSTITUTIONAL CLASSIFICATION.

Abstract

THE SAMPLE USED WAS COMPRISED OF 152 CONSECUTIVE FIRST ADMISSIONS TO THE WISCONSIN SCHOOL FOR BOYS IN WALES, WISCONSIN. SUBJECTS WERE RANDOMLY DIVIDED INTO CONSTRUCTION AND CROSS-VALIDATION SAMPLES OF 76 BOYS EACH. THE PREDICTIVE EFFICIENCY OF DESCRIBED PREDICTOR VARIABLES WAS ASSESSED USING MULTIPLE-REGRESSION EQUATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE CONSTRUCTION SAMPLE. THE EQUATIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT PREDICTIVE EFFICIENCY INCLUDED THOSE PREDICTING INSTITUTIONAL ADJUSTMENT, THE FIRST 3 MONTHS OF POSTRELEASE ADJUSTMENT, TIME ON PAROLE UNTIL REVOCATION, AND TIME ON PAROLE UNTIL DISCHARGE. A GLOBAL PROGNOSTIC RATING BASED UPON PERSONALITY FACTORS BEST PREDICTED INSTITUTIONAL ADJUSTMENT, WHILE A GLOBAL PROGNOSTIC RATING BASED PRIMARILY UPON FAMILY BACKGROUND FACTORS BEST PREDICTED POSTRELEASE ADJUSTMENT. RATINGS FROM PAROLE AGENTS' REPORTS WERE MOST PREDICTIVE OF TIME ON PAROLE UNTIL REVOCATION AND OF TIME ON PAROLE UNTIL DISCHARGE FROM PAROLE STATUS. THE STUDY ALSO DEMONSTRATED A TECHNIQUE FOR USING MULTIPLE-REGRESSION RESULT TO SEGREGATE DELINQUENT BOYS INTO SUBGROUPS WITH DIFFERING SUPERVISION AND TREATMENT NEEDS, FACILITATING THE USE OF SUCH RESULTS IN MAKING DAY-TO-DAY DECISIONS ABOUT THEM. IN GENERAL, THE EQUATION PREDICTING LONG-TERM POSTRELEASE ADJUSTMENT DID NOT FUNCTION AS WELL AS THE OTHERS. A SUBSEQUENT REVIEW OF SELECTED POSTRELEASE REPORTS ON SUBJECTS USED IN THE STUDY SUGGESTED THAT DIFFICULTIES PREDICTING LONG-TERM CRITERIA OF THIS TYPE ARE HEIGHTENED BECAUSE UNCONTROLLED AND UNANTICIPATED SITUATION FACTORS SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERED POSTRELEASE ADJUSTMENT. IT IS ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THIS STUDY IS LARGELY EXPLORATORY. DATA FROM THE STUDY ARE PROVIDED. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED---RCB)