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PREDICTING AN OFFENDER'S PROBABLE PAROLE SUCCESS

NCJ Number
14314
Author(s)
E A GODFREY
Date Published
1973
Length
136 pages
Annotation
RESULTS OF A RESEARCH PROJECT, SHOWING DESCRIPTIVE BACKGROUND AND CRIMINAL HISTORY DATA ON INMATES, AND AN ANALYSIS OF VARIABLES PREDICTIVE OF PAROLE SUCCESS.
Abstract
THE DATA WAS COLLECTED FROM FILES OF INMATES PROCESSED THROUGH THE KANSAS STATE RECEPTION AND DIAGNOSTIC CENTER (KRDC). A TOTAL OF 790 INMATES WERE ANALYZED. INMATE OFFENSES WERE CLASSED AS EITHER CRIMES AGAINST PERSONS, CRIMES AGAINST PROPERTY, OR 'PAPER AND PENCIL' (WHITE COLLAR) CRIMES. DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE INMATES ARE LISTED. DATA ON ADMISSIONS, REFERRALS, SENTENCING, CRIMINAL HISTORY, SOCIAL BACKGROUND, KRDC RECOMMENDATIONS, COURT DISPOSITIONS, INSTITUTIONAL ADJUSTMENT, AND PAROLE PERFORMANCE IS GIVEN. THE PAROLE SUCCESS PREDICTION WAS ACCOMPLISHED BY MEANS OF A STEPWISE REGRESSION ANALYSIS. RESULTS OF PREDICTION WERE NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER, MANY VARIABLES WERE SHOWN TO RELATE TO PAROLE SUCCESS, SUCH AS THE EXTENT OF JUVENILE DELINQUENCY, ALCOHOLISM, PARENTAL RELATIONSHIPS, NUMBER OF EDUCATIONAL COURSES COMPLETED IN PRISON, VISITS WHILE IN PRISON, AND NUMBER OF TIMES PAROLE WAS DENIED. THE PAPER AND PENCIL OFFENDERS HAD THE MOST PAROLE FAILURES, WHILE THE PROPERTY AND PERSON OFFENDERS TENDED TO HAVE A HIGHER SUCCESS RATE. DATA ARE PRESENTED IN TABULAR FORM, AND THE APPENDIXES INCLUDE VARIABLES USED IN THE REGRESSION ANALYSIS, PAROLE PREDICTION EQUATIONS, AND A RESEARCH MANUAL ON PREDICTING AN OFFENDER'S PROBABLE PAROLE SUCCESS RATE. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)