NCJ Number
120499
Journal
Canadian Police College Journal Volume: 13 Issue: 3 Dated: (1989) Pages: 87-127
Date Published
1989
Length
41 pages
Annotation
A computerized simulation model analyzing human resource demographics within the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) projects attrition, promotions, and recruitment over the next eight-year period and demonstrates forthcoming changes in the age and length of service groupings of members at each rank level.
Abstract
The seven basic factors that determine the opportunity structure of an organization are the rank structure, promotional policy, retirement policy, growth, force demographics, attrition, and personnel policy changes. The Canadian Police College has contracted for the development of a simulation model called SIMERH which requires certain data for input, including starting strength distribution, departure rates, promotion transfer matrix, promotion length of stay preference, growth/decline, and policy changes. After processing the inputs, SIMERH projects steadily increasing attrition due to collective aging; increasing numbers of promotions but not enough to continue a nearly universal promotion policy; lower net promotional outcomes for those who have been in service between 8 and 18 years; an increase in the age of constables and an increase in the age variability of constables; and a collectively older force. 35 tables, 5 references.