PREDICTING RECIDIVISM USING THE GLUECK SOCIAL PREDICTION SCALE WITH MALE FIRST OFFENDER DELINQUENTS.

• NCJ Number: 43825
• Journal: Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology Volume: 7 Issue: 1 Dated: (MARCH 1974) Pages: 31-43
• Author(s): A P T LOFTUS
• Date Published: 1974
• Length: 13 pages
• Corporate Author: Southdown Press
• Publication Format: Article
• Language: English
• Country: Australia

Annotation

A FIVE-VARIABLE SCALE IS USED TO PREDICT THE LIKELIHOOD OF RECIDIVISM AMONG A GROUP OF 663 MALE FIRST OFFENDERS CONVICTED IN 1964 IN AUSTRALIA.

Abstract

GLUECK SOCIAL PREDICTION SCALE CONSISTS OF FIVE ITEMS: DISCIPLINE OF THE BOY BY HIS FATHER; SUPERVISION BY THE MOTHER; AFFECTION OF THE FATHER FOR THE BOY; AFFECTION OF THE MOTHER FOR THE BOY; AND COHESIVENESS OF THE FAMILY. THE OVERALL RECIDIVISM RATE FOR THE STUDY SAMPLE WAS 35.6 PERCENT, WITH 126 OF THE 236 RECIDIVISTS REPEATING ONLY ONCE. APPLICATION OF THE GLUECK SCALE TO THE SAMPLE DEMONSTRATES THAT ALL TYPES OF POOR FAMILY RELATIONSHIPS ARE RELATED TO CONTINUING DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR. HOWEVER, NONE OF THE ABERRANT FORMS OF CHILD/PARENT INTERACTION PROVES PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO MULTIPLE RECONVICTIONS. THE DEGREE OF RELATIONSHIP TO RECIDIVISM GENERALLY CLAIMED FOR THE GLUECK FACTORS IS FOUND TO BE CONSIDERABLY EXAGGERATED IN THIS SAMPLE. THE POOREST PROGNOSIS IN REGARD TO RECIDIVISM INCLUDES OVERLY STRICT AND HOSTILE MOTHER AND FATHER, UNSUITABLE MATERNAL SUPERVISION, AND NONCOHESIVE FAMILY. SUPPORTING DATA AND A LIST OF REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED.