Predicting Reconvictions for Sexual and Violent Offences Using the Revised Offender Group Reconviction Scale

• NCJ Number: 182569
• Author(s): Ricky Taylor
• Date Published: 1999
• Length: 4 pages
• Sale Source: Great Britain Home Office Research Development and Statistics Directorate
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United Kingdom
• Note: Research Findings No. 104

Annotation

This study examines the advantages and limitations of the revised Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS), particularly in relation to predicting sexual and violent reconvictions.

Abstract

The OGRS predicts, from a limited number of criminal history and demographic factors, the probability that an offender will be reconvicted within 2 years of release from prison or from the start of a community penalty for any standard list offense. A revised version of OGRS also predicts reconvictions for sexual and violent offenses. The revised version was more accurate in predicting reconvictions for certain age groups with respect to general offending. A history of burglary was a factor in predicting reconviction for both general and sexual and violent reconvictions. The OGRS was able to classify sexual and violent offenders according to their level of risk. Of offenders with no previous history of sexual or violent offenses, 10 percent were reconvicted for such offenses. Tables, references