NCJ Number
228562
Journal
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Volume: 46 Issue: 4 Dated: November 2009 Pages: 468-494
Date Published
November 2009
Length
27 pages
Annotation
This study examined offending trajectories by analyzing long-term patterns of offending for a large sample of convicted offenders in the Netherlands.
Abstract
The findings indicate that although magnitude differences were readily apparent, criminal offending trajectories derived from the Dutch Criminal Career and Life-Course Study (CCLS) followed a general path that declined over time for all convicted offenders. In addition, despite the use of data covering a large portion of the life course, containing a large sample of serous offenders, and the application of an advanced statistical technique, the results were consistent with previous findings regarding the difficulty of predicting high-rate offenders prospectively. Distinguishing trajectories of criminal offending over the life course has received considerable attention over the past two decades. One question that has emerged from these studies was whether it was possible to distinguish or predict varying criminal offending trajectories, especially the chronic high-rate offender groups, using risk factors identified early in the life course. This study used longitudinal data on conviction histories from the CCLS to examine whether adolescent risk factors predicted offending trajectories across the life span. The study sample consisted of 4,615 individuals convicted in the Netherlands in 1977 beginning at 12 years of age and continuing into late adulthood. Two different analytical approaches were employed, examining whether offending trajectories could be prospectively differentiated by risk factors identified in adolescents and examining the ability to predict the probability of an individual's membership in a particular trajectory group. Figures, tables, notes, and references