NCJ Number
146573
Journal
Revija za Kriminalistiko in Kriminologijo Volume: 44 Issue: 3 Dated: (July-September 1993) Pages: 217-233
Date Published
1993
Length
17 pages
Annotation
This statistical survey tests the accuracy of recidivism predictions by examining 80 convicts who were released from prison in 1991 and for whom recidivism predictions had been made.
Abstract
The results are based on a study of police data, data of correctional institutions, and criminal records. They took into account the type of criminal offense committed, the date of commission, and information about the sentence imposed on the recidivists. The results indicate that of the 80 released convicts 12 were again convicted within 1 year after their release; of these, nine were sentenced to prison and three to suspended sentences. Four of the recidivists had received an uncertain recidivism prognosis, and eight had received an unfavorable prognosis. None of the recidivists had received a very favorable or even favorable prognosis. The study concludes that prognostic estimation can predict recidivism with relative accuracy. However, the research did not support the expectation that recidivism can be prevented by an unfavorable police prognosis or by preventive measures of social control agencies. 67 references