Prediction in Criminal Justice Policy Development (From Prediction and Classification: Criminal Justice Decision Making, P 103-150, 1987, Don M. Gottfredson and Michael Tonry, eds. -- See NCJ-116250)

• NCJ Number: 116253
• Author(s): J S Goldkamp
• Date Published: 1987
• Length: 48 pages
• Sale Source: University of Chicago Press
• Publication Type: Issue Overview
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: *This document is currently unavailable from NCJRS.

Annotation

This essay focuses on the Gottfredson-Wilkins approach to voluntary decision guidelines pioneered in Federal parole practices in the early 1970s, using a bail guidelines project in Philadelphia to illustrate policy and methodological issues relating to the use of predictions in decisionmaking.

Abstract

Following a history of voluntary guidelines development, the paper discusses two broad sets of issues: the appropriateness of empirically based methods in guidelines development and the correctness of the statistical procedures employed. An account of Philadelphia's Bail-decisionmaking Project emphasizes that bail decisions under guidelines revealed clear-cut differences compared with a nonguidelines control group, particularly in disparity reduction. Analysis of criticisms that modeling practices may generate biased decisionmaking concludes that the impact of poor modeling procedures may be much less than fear. The paper finds insufficient evidence to discredit claims of the decision guidelines approach to policy reform. Tables and approximately 30 references. (Author abstract modified)