NCJ Number
45926
Journal
Crime and Delinquency Dated: (JANUARY 1978) Pages: 40-48
Date Published
1978
Length
9 pages
Annotation
A STUDY WAS UNDERTAKEN TO EXAMINE THE VALIDITY OF PREDICTOR VARIABLES OF JUVENILE DANGEROUSNESS IDENTIFIED BY NINE PREVIOUS STUDIES AND BY STAFF MEMBERS OF A FAMILY COURT AND ITS PSYCHIATRIC CLINIC.
Abstract
THE RECORDS OF 122 JUVENILES OVER 15 YEARS OF AGE REFERRED TO THE CLINIC FOR EVALUATION WERE STUDIED FOR THE PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF PREDICTOR VARIABLES. (TO PROTECT PRIVACY, THE CLINIC IS NOT NAMED.) PREDICTOR VARIABLES ASSESSED INCLUDED ABNORMAL ELECTROENCEPHALOGRAM (EEG), EXTREMELY UNFAVORABLE LIFE/FAMILY EXPERIENCES, POOR PERSONALITY PROGNOSIS, POOR INSTITUTIONAL ADJUSTMENT, BEDWETTING, ARSON, CRUELTY TO ANIMALS, OVERSTRICT/LAX PARENTAL DISCIPLINE, TRUANCY, SCHOOL MISCONDUCT, EDUCATIONAL UNDERACHIEVEMENT, SOCIOPATHY, ALCOHOLISM/DRUG DEPENDENCE, HISTORY OF VIOLENCE, COMMITMENT FOR VIOLENT OFFENSE, FIGHTING, TEMPER TANTRUMS, INABILITY TO GET ALONG WITH OTHERS, PARENTAL BRUTALITY, EXPOSURE TO VIOLENCE/MURDER, PARENTAL SEDUCTION OR PERVERSION, SEX, RELIGION, RACE, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, READING DISABILITY, ADOPTION STATUS, PHYSICAL DEFECT, BROKEN FAMILY, MARITAL DISCORD, FAMILY SIZE, PARENTAL ALCOHOLISM, DYSFUNCTIONAL FAMILY, AND SOCIAL ISOLATION OF THE JUVENILE. CHI-SQUARE ANALYSES WERE PERFORMED FOR 124 COMPARISONS AMONG PREDICTOR VARIABLES, CLINIC RECOMMENDATIONS, AND CRITERION BEHAVIORS (VIOLENCE, LARCENY/BURGLARY, IN NEED OF SUPERVISION, RUNAWAY, AND OTHERS). TABLES INDICATE DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SAMPLE, CASE BREAKDOWN FOR EACH VARIABLE, PLACEMENT RECOMMENDATION, AND CRITERION BEHAVIOR. IT WAS FOUND THAT ONLY 15.6 PERCENT OF THE JUVENILES WERE REFERRED FOR VIOLENT OFFENSES AND ONLY 5.7 PERCENT COMMITTED VIOLENT/DANGEROUS OFFENSES DURING A 1-YEAR FOLLOWUP PERIOD. NO SYSTEMATIC RELATIONSHIPS AMONG PREDICTOR VARIABLES, CLINIC RECOMMENDATIONS, AND CRITERION BEHAVIORS WERE FOUND, NOR DID THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN PREDICTIONS OF DANGEROUSNESS AND SUBSEQUENT VIOLENT BEHAVIOR REACH SIGNIFICANCE. THE RESULTS DO NOT SUPPORT THE CONCLUSIONS REACHED BY PREVIOUS RESEARCH, NOR DO THEY SUPPORT COURT AND CLINIC ASSUMPTIONS OF A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VARIABLES AND SUBSEQUENT DANGEROUSNESS. A NUMBER OF METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS IN PREDICTION RESEARCH ARE IDENTIFIED, INCLUDING THE UNCERTAIN RELIABILITY OF INDIVIDUAL JUVENILE VARIABLES, THE UNAVOIDABLE BIAS OF RESEARCH SAMPLES BASED ON JUVENILE OFFENDERS, AND INACCURATE OFFENDER RECORDS. PREDICTORS IDENTIFIED MAY BE DIFFICULT TO EVALUATE IN SPECIFIC CASES. UNCONTROLLABLE FACTORS MAY INFLUENCE FOLLOWUP DATA, AND RESEARCH REPORTS INDICATE AN EXTREMELY HIGH NUMBER OF FALSE POSITIVES. IN ADDITION, THE CONCEPT OF DANGEROUSNESS IS NOT AMENABLE TO IDENTIFICATION IN TERMS OF A PSYCHOLOGICAL CONSTRUCT. (JAP)