NCJ Number
85459
Journal
Annual Journal Volume: 4 Dated: (1981) Pages: 3-19
Date Published
1981
Length
17 pages
Annotation
In the following article, the author addresses problems associated with the prediction of dangerous behavior.
Abstract
She begins by distinguishing between violence and dangerousness (a distinction often overlooked by those working in the criminal justice field), then goes on the examine the heart of the issue, i.e. the accuracy of danger prediction in criminal justice and mental health. Readers should pay close attention to her definition and explanation of 'base rate' and how that rate affects our ability to predict. The author concludes with a warning about the effects of overprediction and urges that future efforts at danger prediction be more broad-based: 'Nowhere is it more important to achieve a working collaboration between social scientists, clinicians and the law than in this area of dangerousness prediction.' (Publisher abstract)