NCJ Number
55144
Date Published
1932
Length
133 pages
Annotation
THE CASE FILES OF 1,515 PROBATIONERS HANDLED BY RAMSEY COUNTY, MINN., DURING 1923-1925 WERE USED IN THIS 1932 STUDY OF WHETHER PROBATION OUTCOME PREDICTION TECHNIQUES CAN BE EMPLOYED IN THE SELECTION OF PROBATIONERS.
Abstract
THESE CASES--896 JUVENILE DELINQUENT PROBATIONERS AND 619 ADULT PROBATIONERS--WERE STUDIED, AND INFORMATION BEARING ON EACH WAS CLASSIFIED IN ACCORDANCE WITH A LIST OF MAJOR CATEGORIES AND APPROPRIATE SUBCATEGORIES OF ASSOCIATED FACTORS: (1) THE ORIGIN AND AGE OF THE PROBATIONERS, (2) THEIR FAMILY AND FAMILY BACKGROUND, (3) THEIR EDUCATION AND RELIGION, (4) THEIR SOCIAL BACKGROUND, (5) THEIR PREPROBATION DELINQUENT RECORD AND FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROBATION OFFENSE, AND (6) OTHER FACTORS OF INTEREST ASSOCIATED WITH PROBATION. THE CASES WERE GROUPED AS VIOLATORS AND NONVIOLATORS OF PROBATION, AND THE PROPORTION OF OFFENDERS IN EACH SUBCATEGORY FOR EACH MAJOR CATEGORY WAS COMPUTED SEPARATELY FOR JUVENILES AND ADULTS. THE RESULTING PERCENTAGES WERE DESIGNATED AS VIOLATION RATES FOR EACH SUBCATEGORY AND WERE COMPARED WITH THE AVERAGE VIOLATION RATE OF THE TOTAL NUMBER OF JUVENILE CASES AND ADULT CASES RESPECTIVELY. FROM THIS COMPARISON IT WAS POSSIBLE TO DETERMINE THE AMOUNT BY WHICH THE VIOLATION RATE OF ANY ONE PARTICULAR SUBCATEGORY DEVIATED FROM THE AVERAGE VIOLATION RATE OF THE GROUP AS A WHOLE. MARKED DIFFERENCES WERE REVEALED NOT ONLY BETWEEN THE VIOLATION RATES OF PARTICULAR SUBCATEGORIES AND THE AVERAGE RATE, BUT ALSO BETWEEN THE VIOLATION RATES OF DIFFERENT SUBCATEGORIES. THE RESULTS INDICATE THAT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VIOLATION RATES OF DIFFERENT SUBCATEGORIES ARE GENERALLY LARGER THAN COULD BE ASCRIBED TO CHANCE ALONE, AND THUS, TABLES DEVELOPED ON THE BASIS OF THESE DATA SHOULD POSSESS A MEASURE OF PREDICTIVE POWER AS REGARDS THE PROBABLE OUTCOME OF ADULT AND JUVENILE PROBATION. TABULAR DATA, REFERENCES, AND AN INDEX ARE INCLUDED. (KBL)