Prediction (From Handbook of Juvenile Delinquency, P 325-382, 1987, Herbert C Quay, ed. -- See NCJ-106369)

• NCJ Number: 106378
• Author(s): R Loeber; M Stouthammer-Loeber
• Date Published: 1987
• Length: 58 pages
• Sale Source: John Wiley and Sons
• Publication Type: Literature Review
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

A review is presented of research into the predictors of delinquency, including chronic and violent offending.

Abstract

Results indicate that early conduct problems (aggression, truancy, stealing, lying, drug use) are predictive of later delinquency, particularly serious delinquency, and in some cases recidivism. While juvenile arrest and conviction is a predictor of subsequent adult criminality, the seriousness of juvenile delinquency is a better predictor of the seriousness of adult offending. Particularly strong family predictors of subsequent delinquency include lack of supervision, parental rejection, parental criminality and aggressiveness, and marital discord. The strongest predictors were multiple family handicaps. While poor educational performance predicts later delinquency, the effect is largely mediated by conduct problems. Early conduct problems and other handicaps predict chronic offending, while early aggressiveness predicts violent offending. Offense-specific precursors have been found for theft and drug use. Approximately 180 references.