NCJ Number
54692
Journal
Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology Volume: 32 Issue: 1 Dated: (FEBRUARY 1968) Pages: 54-58
Date Published
1968
Length
5 pages
Annotation
SEVERAL APPROACHES TO PREDICTING PROBATION SUCCESS OR FAILURE ARE TESTED AND COMPARED IN A STUDY OF 267 MALE JUVENILE DELINQUENTS ASSIGNED TO 1 YEAR'S PROBATION BY THE ESSEX COUNTY, N.J., JUVENILE COURT.
Abstract
PREDICTIONS FROM A FIVE-ITEM BASE EXPECTANCY TABLE CONSTRUCTED FROM THE CALIFORNIA YOUTH AUTHORITY BASE EXPECTANCY INDEX WERE SIGNIFICANTLY ALTHOUGH NOT GREATLY BETTER THAN CHANCE. CLINICAL PREDICTIONS BY TWO INDEPENDENT JUDGES FROM MINNESOTA MULTIPHASIC PERSONALITY INVENTORY (MMPI) PROFILES COMPLETELY FAILED TO IMPROVE UPON CHANCE, AS DID ACTUARIAL PREDICTIONS BASED ON DELINQUENCY-PRONENESS DATA FROM A STUDY OF 4,000 ADOLESCENT MINNESOTA MALES. AN ATTEMPT TO CONSTRUCT A 'MODERATOR VARIABLE,' AN MMPI-BASED MEANS OF IDENTIFYING THOSE YOUTHS WHOSE PROBATION OUTCOME WAS MOST ACCURATELY PREDICTABLE FROM THEIR BASE EXPECTANCY TABLE SCORES, ALSO FAILED. THE FINDINGS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THOSE OF OTHER RESEARCHERS WHO HAVE CONCLUDED THAT, ALTHOUGH FUTURE BEHAVIOR OF OFFENDERS IS BETTER PREDICTED FROM PREVIOUS BEHAVIOR (AS EMBODIED IN THE BASE EXPECTANCY TABLE) THAN FROM PERSONALITY TEST DATA, ANY IMPROVEMENT OVER CHANCE PREDICTION IS RELATIVELY SMALL. THE FAILURE OF THE MMPI AS A PREDICTIVE DEVICE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL ASSOCIATION THEORY OF CRIME CAUSATION AND WITH PAROLE WERE MORE IMPORTANT THAN THEIR PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS AS DETERMINANTS OF RECIDIVISM. SUPPORTING DATA AND A LIST OF REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (LKM)