NCJ Number
54584
Journal
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SOCIAL PSYCHIATRY Volume: 10 Dated: (JANUARY/DECEMBER 1964) Pages: 27-29
Date Published
1964
Length
3 pages
Annotation
THE DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING OF AN INSTRUMENT FOR PREDICTING PROBATION SUCCESS OR FAILURE AMONG MALE JUVENILE DELINQUENTS IS DESCRIBED.
Abstract
TEACHERS COMPLETED A BRISTOL SOCIAL ADJUSTMENT GUIDE FOR ALL MALE JUVENILES AGED 8 TO 15 IN GLASGOW, SCOTLAND, WHO WERE ASSIGNED TO PROBATION FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 1957, AND FOR A CONTROL GROUP OF NONDELINQUENTS. THE BRISTOL GUIDE IS A MEASURE OF BEHAVIOR DISTURBANCE CONTAINING 163 OBJECTIVE INDICATORS OF MALADJUSTMENT AND 49 INDICATORS OF STABILITY. IT WAS FOUND THAT 46 PERCENT OF THE PROBATIONERS, COMPARED TO 7.7 PERCENT OF CONTROLS, WERE MALADJUSTED, WHILE 23 PERCENT OF THE PROBATIONERS, COMPARED TO 72 PERCENT OF CONTROLS, WERE REASONABLY STABLE. THE INDICATORS WHICH PROVED PARTICULARLY CHARACTERISTIC OF PROBATIONER MALADJUSTMENT WERE USED AS THE BASIS OF A DELINQUENCY PREDICTION INSTRUMENT, WHICH PROVIDES A SCORE FOR USE IN PREDICTING FUTURE DELINQUENCY. DURING THEIR 2 YEARS ON PROBATION, THE YOUTHS RECEIVED NO SPECIAL TREATMENT APART FROM SUPERVISION. AT THE END OF THE 2 YEARS, 39.4 PERCENT HAD COMMITTED AT LEAST ONE MORE OFFENSE. THE PREDICTION INSTRUMENT PROVED MORE SUCCESSFUL THAN THE BRISTOL GUIDE IN DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN OFFENDERS AND NONOFFENDERS. THOSE WHO SCORED HIGHEST ON THE MALADJUSTMENT SCALE OF THE BRISTOL GUIDE WERE TWICE AS LIKELY AS OTHERS TO COMMIT AN OFFENSE WHILE ON PROBATION. THOSE WITH THE HIGHEST DELINQUENCY PREDICTION SCORES WERE NEARLY THREE TIMES AS LIKELY TO COMMIT AN OFFENSE. LIMITATIONS AND POTENTIAL ADVANTAGES OF THE PREDICTION INSTRUMENT, WHICH IS DESCRIBED IN DETAIL ELSEWHERE, ARE POINTED OUT. SUPPORTING DATA AND A LIST OF REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (LKM)