NCJ Number
43826
Journal
Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology Volume: 7 Issue: 1 Dated: (MARCH 1974) Pages: 44-54
Date Published
1974
Length
11 pages
Annotation
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TOOL OF USE IN PREDICTING THE LIKELIHOOD THAT PAROLEES WILL RETURN TO PRISON IS DESCRIBED.
Abstract
THE PROGRESS OF 593 ADULT MALE PAROLEES RELEASED FROM PRISONS IN VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA, IN FISCAL YEAR 1968-69 WAS FOLLOWED FOR 2 YEARS, AND THEIR PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS WERE RECORDED. THE SAMPLE WAS ANALYZED TO DETERMINE THOSE CHARACTERISTICS THAT WERE SIGNIFICANTLY RELATED TO FAILURE, I.E., REIMPRISONMENT WITHIN 2 YEARS OF RELEASE ON PAROLE. A PREDICTIVE DEVICE LISTING 25 CHARACTERISTICS ALLOWS SCORES TO BE CALCULATED FOR EACH INMATE REFLECTING THE EXTENT TO WHICH HE POSSESSES CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH RISK OF REIMPRISONMENT IN THE ORIGINAL SAMPLE. INMATE SCORES ARE THEN COMPARED WITH A RISK TABLE, WHICH TRANSLATES SCORES INTO ESTIMATES OF REIMPRISONMENT RISK (VERY LOW, LOW, HIGH, OR VERY HIGH). COMPARISON OF CONSTRUCTION AND VALIDATION SAMPLES SHOWS THE PREDICTIVE DEVICE TO BE VERY STRONG. REASONS FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVICE ARE DISCUSSED. THE SIMPLICITY OF THE DEVICE IS NOTED, AND POTENTIAL USES ARE SUGGESTED. A LIST OF REFERENCES IS INCLUDED.