Preliminary Validation of the Juvenile First Offender Risk Assessment Index

• NCJ Number: 185704
• Journal: Research on Social Work Practice Volume: 10 Issue: 1 Dated: January 2000 Pages: 111-126
• Author(s): Edwin A. Risler; Richard Sutphen; John Shields
• Date Published: January 2000
• Length: 16 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Measurement/Evaluation Device
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This study evaluates the validity of the First Offender Risk Assessment Index in predicting delinquent behavior.

Abstract

The First Offender Risk Assessment Index (FORAI) comprises seven predictor variables: family history of criminal involvement, school functioning, substance abuse, peer group associations, parental supervision, age at first court referral, and seriousness of the referring offense. The study collected longitudinal data on recidivism rates for 181 first offenders who, along with their parents, were previously administered the FORAI. The FORAI correctly classified the recidivism of more than 70 percent of the study sample and four of the seven predictor variables were statistically significant. The study concludes that the FORAI, as a composite measure, could provide a meaningful approach to the early identification of at-risk youth. Use of this instrument may require additional costs in time and resources, but the FORAI is also a valid predictor of recidivism among a first-offender population. Tables, figure, references