NCJ Number
101145
Date Published
1986
Length
70 pages
Annotation
The Washington State inmate population is forecasted to increase from 7,005 at the end of fiscal year 1985 to 9,552 at the end of fiscal year 1999, an average increase of about 183 inmates per year.
Abstract
This increase is expected because anticipated admission volumes are greater than anticipated release volumes in the forecast period. Violent offenders are expected to compose 81.1 percent of the inmate population by the end of fiscal year 1999, compared to 68.9 percent at the end of fiscal year 1985. Expected increases in admissions for violent crimes will be primarily due to increasing admissions for sex crimes and robbery. By the end of fiscal year 1986, sex offenders are predicted to comprise the largest offender group in the State's prisons. The long-range forecast does not assume any policy changes after fiscal year 1990. The forecasted inmate population after that year is based almost exclusively on expected demographic changes. The report describes the forecasting methodology, including the change components and associated assumptions. 19 tables and 28 figures.